The Marion County Prosecutor’s Office boasts a 75 percent success rate in winning 15 of 20 murder cases brought to trial so far this year. But four murder case dismissals highlight the difficulty prosecutors have in bringing accused killers to justice. Dontae Davis was sentenced this week to four years of home detention, with four years suspended, after his conviction as a serious violent felon in possession of a firearm.
Also, in the past, the USITC has not urged us to ignore its model results when its model has predicted an improved trade balance under an FTA. Trade balance would improve as a result of the trade pact.[iv] The CAFTA study did not urge its readers to ignore its predictions of changes in imports and exports as the Korea FTA study does. Indeed, the CAFTA study calls attention to the change in the trade balance.[v] CAFTA proponents from both parties seized on this fact.
Missouri will slow down the tempo somewhat this year. The structure of the offense will look similar. Lots of three receiver, one tight end, one back shotgun formations. Energy investors searching for clues as to where prices are going often look to the oil futures strip contracts that expire in each of the months ahead.But an analysis of monthly spot prices since 2001, compared to average expectations in the 24 months leading up to those dates, shows that the crude oil strip is a poor indicator of future prices.On top of that, TD Securities analyst Juan Jarrah found that the higher than average volatility associated with oil price movements indicates a wide range of outcomes may occur.How bad an indicator of future spot prices is the futures strip? In the 175 months since January 2001 that Jarrah tracked, the futures strip overestimated the actual price 32 per cent of the time, and underestimated it the other 68 per cent.WTI has recently shown to be highly correlated to the global supply/demand imbalance, this has historically not been the case, the analyst said in a research note. There are other factors involved, but our conclusion is that the current weakness in oil prices is an overreaction if solely blamed on current excess supply. How high volatility is relative to historical levels, he believes there is ample opportunity for the strip to be wrong again when it comes to 2016 and 2017 oil prices.Jarrah noted that the standard deviation of the July 2015 contract during the past 24 months was US$15 per barrel, compared to about US$7 per barrel between 2011 and 2014.Since the current spot price is more than two standard deviations lower than the strip would have predicted, he believes the current futures curve could prove to be excessively bearish.With market sentiment at a recent low, Jarrah looked for names that stand to benefit in a rising commodity price environment, specifically those with more than 20 per cent liquidity on their bank credit lines, below average cash margins, and at least a 70 per cent weighting to oil.Companies that fit the bill among the junior and intermediate producers in the analyst coverage universe include Baytex Energy Corp., Lightstream Resources Ltd., BlackPearl Resources Inc., Surge Energy Inc., Twinn Butte Energy Ltd.